Journal of Mathematical Biology

The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) system is an accurate model of electrodiffusion of ionic species. It is commonly used in situations where nanoscale resolution is required, for instance close to ion channels in the membranes of biological cells. The inherent stiffness of the equations has made them challenging to solve and has limited the applicability of the system. In particular, the time step required for stable solutions has typically needed to be very short (nanoseconds), which makes simulations on the time scale of an action potential (milliseconds) difficult. Recently, it has been observed that avoiding operator splitting and instead solving the concentration equations and the electrostatic equation in a coupled manner relaxes the time-step limitation considerably. However, no theoretical explanation of this observation has been provided. Here, we aim to explain why the coupled scheme allows much larger time steps. We illustrate the mechanism by considering special cases that define necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for stability. We also show that these conditions remain relevant for the fully coupled PNP model in 3D.

1Although resources are typically distributed continuously in space, species distributions often organize into discrete clusters. In his seminal paper [36], Turing demonstrated that such clusters can spontaneously arise in population densities, even when populations evolve in environments with continuously varying conditions. This phenomenon is known as Turing instability. In this work, we focus on two models grounded in population dynamics: a one-dimensional model based on the nonlocal Fisher-KPP equation, and a two-dimensional model involving an environmental gradient. We show that phenotypic clusters (sometimes referred to as "species") emerge in these models. We prove that they do not emerge because of Turing instability, but because of stochasticity, and that they disappear when stochasticity is reduced. First, for both models, we start our simulations with initial populations uniformly distributed in the state space. We show that phenotypic clusters quickly emerge and that the distances between them depend on the population size, that is, on the degree of stochasticity. Next, we start from already clearly defined phenotypic clusters. We identify three regimes in the connection between population size, the initial distances between clusters, and the distances between clusters at equilibrium. Last, on the two-dimensional model, we relax the hypothesis of complete clonality by varying the effective recombination rate, explore its effect on phenotypic clustering, and show that phenotypic clustering decays drastically with slight recombination.

This work focuses on the global and partial identification problem for fractional differential equations. We provide a general numerical procedure based on global and local optimization algorithms with two refinements for biological systems that ensure solution positivity and homogeneous parameter units. The method is applied to a new fractional model of Dengue outbreak called the Fractional Homogeneous Nishiura (FHN) model, calibrated using data of newly infected people in Cape Verde. We show that our identification method yields a better fit between data and model solutions than previous approaches and that our FHN model captures the dynamics of Dengue more closely than existing systems.

Minimum viable populations (MVPs) are population levels large enough to surmount risk from demographic, environmental, and genetic stochasticity. MVPs are estimated by biologists to guide conservation practices. However, MVPs are generally estimated for a target population without regard for how they interact with intra- and inter-species population dynamics in the broader ecological community. Thus, how and why population dynamics interact with MVPs imposed by conservation biologists remain unclear. When MVPs are imposed on a continuous population model, traditional analyses fail to capture the range of possible outcomes those MVPs create. Here, we describe viability space decomposition (VSD) as a mathematical tool to systematically analyze the potential crossing of MVPs during population dynamics. We demonstrate that different extinction and survival outcomes can be recovered from a model with imposed MVPs using three VSD concepts in junction with a traditional phase portrait: mortality manifolds which separate conditions that lead to different existential outcomes, ordering manifolds which determine the order of extinction events for multiple populations, and collapse manifolds which determine the survival or extinction of one species given the loss of another. We employ these methods with a standard consumer-resource model, and the methods can be scaled to systems with more species. VSD is a useful tool for conservation biologists and community ecologists concerned with boundary crossing problems in any dynamical system.

Darwinian fitness is equated here with invasion fitness and defined as the quantity determining the fate--certain extinction or possible spread--of a single mutant type. We derive it, together with its phenotypic derivative, for evolution in group-structured populations under limited genetic mixing, where the demography of the focal species and its environment is modeled as a discrete-time stochastic process. Reproduction, physiological development, dispersal, and survival are influenced by interactions within and between groups and by environmental fluctuations within and across generations. Using multitype branching processes in random environments, we show that invasion fitness is predicted by a stochastic growth rate that can be represented biologically in two meaningful genealogical ways. First, as the long-term geometric mean of the expected per-capita number of mutant copies produced per time step by a representative member of the mutant lineage. Second, as the the long-term geometric mean of the expected reproductive-value-weighted per-capita number of mutant copies produced by such an individual. This latter representation is useful for computing the phenotypic directional derivative of invasion fitness. Moreover, this derivative can be written as an actor-centered inclusive-fitness effect derived from properties of the resident population process. This effect depends on class-specific fitness differentials, relatedness, reproductive values, and class frequencies. However, unless generation- and class-specific fitness defines a stochastic matrix, the derivative does not separate stochastic reproductive values from relatedness and class frequencies, and must be evaluated by simulations. In summary, we formalize invasion fitness biologically quite generally and show how Hamiltons marginal rule is deduced from it.

Vertex models are widely used within the field of developmental biology to study tissue morphogenesis. These models are well-suited for modeling deformation at the cellular level where movement is driven by local forces. However, understanding how these microscopic movements coordinate to yield macroscopic phenomena such as the shapes of entire tissues remains a challenge. Here we study a top-down approach using differentiable programming on a simplified vertex model of a laminar tissue, and investigate whether the attributes of individual cells can be tuned to make the mesh as a whole acquire a predefined shape. We let the mesh evolve according to simple rules defined by the input to each polygon, and evaluate the resulting shape against a target boundary. Additionally, we show how the high degeneracy of the output can be reduced by constraining the polygon distributions: first, by adding simple penalties on tissue-wide attributes; and second, by dividing the tissue into regions, within which we bias the attributes toward characteristic values. Our study shows how a simple vertex model can be combined with differentiable programming to model developing tissues, and provides insight into the way individual cells must coordinate to yield macroscopic phenomena such as pre-programmed shapes.

Cancer stem cells (CSCs) exhibit increased resistance to radiotherapy, contributing to tumor recurrence and progression. While CSCs are known for their intrinsic resistance, the role of their spatial organization remains poorly understood. We extend a computational model of tumorsphere growth to investigate how the spatial distribution of CSCs influences radiation response. The model explicitly tracks cell lineages and spatial positions, revealing a preferential accumulation of CSCs in the spheroid interior. Because radiosensitivity increases with oxygen availability, and oxygen levels are lowest in the tumor core, this spatial organization confers a protective advantage to the CSC population. We find that this effect is negligible in small, well-oxygenated tumorspheres but becomes pronounced as growth leads to the emergence of hypoxic regions. To isolate the role of spatial structure, we compare these results with control simulations in which CSC positions are randomly reassigned. In these synthetic configurations, CSC survival under irradiation is markedly reduced, demonstrating that spatial localization is a key determinant of radioresistance. This effect persists even after the onset of central necrosis, suggesting that the "spatial niche" of CSCs is a critical target for improving therapeutic outcomes. Author SummaryCancer stem cells are known to survive radiotherapy better than other cancer cells, often leading to tumor recurrence. While this resistance is usually attributed to intrinsic biological differences between cells, in this study we show that their physical location within the tumor plays a critical and previously underestimated role. We developed a three-dimensional computer model that simulates the growth of a tumorsphere from a single cancer stem cell. Because oxygen levels influence how sensitive cells are to radiation, our model tracks the position of each cell and calculates the oxygen distribution. We found that cancer stem cells naturally accumulate in the poorly oxygenated spheroid core, where radiation is less effective. To confirm that this location directly causes their survival advantage, we performed a "digital experiment": We artificially redistributed the same cells randomly throughout the tumorsphere before applying simulated radiation. In this random configuration, cancer stem cell survival dropped significantly. Our results show that radioresistance is not only an intrinsic cell property, but also a consequence of the spatial structure of the tumor. This finding suggests that future therapies could be improved by targeting not only the stem cells themselves, but also the protective hypoxic niches where they reside.

Infectious disease time series often show signs of epidemic transitions, such as the peaks and troughs of the time series. In these time series, key system parameters can lead to catastrophic changes in the dynamical system behaviour (often called critical transitions). Modellers have increasingly shown that early warning signals can anticipate these transitions, both critical and non-critical, in infectious disease time series. Existing methods, however, generally focus on univariate time series data, or ignore spatiotemporal patterns that may be present as a disease spreads through a population. Recent ecological literature developments expand existing temporal and spatial methods to consider the covariance matrix of multiple, related time series. However, many of these proposed signals still make an assumption of stationary time series/system equilibrium. Whilst often true in ecological modelling, disease systems are seldom at equilibrium. In this paper, we propose the usage of the eigendecomposition of the non-stationary covariance matrix as a more suitable early warning signal for epidemiological data. We first analyse the expected trends in the eigenvalues and eigenbasis of the covariance matrix on approach to a transition. Next we apply these methods to a spatially-structured susceptible-infectious-recovered model to explore how the eigenbasis may provide extra information to modellers. Finally, we test these methods on SARS-CoV-2 case data during the 2020-2021 pandemic period in England.

Thin structures such as heart valves and aortic dissection flaps interact dynamically with blood flow in human vessels. Their flexibility and capacity for large deformations generate complex, highly transient hemodynamic patterns over the cardiac cycle. Accurately resolving these interactions remains challenging for conventional boundary-fitted fluid-structure interaction approaches. We present an immersed boundary method for simulating thin structures in incompressible flow on unstructured grids. The method couples a stabilized finite element fluid solver with a nonlinear, rotation-free shell formulation through a direct forcing immersed boundary approach. The framework supports both weak (explicit) and strong (implicit) time-coupling strategies, enabling stable simulations over a wide range of solid-to-fluid density ratios. Hydrodynamic forces acting on thin structures are computed from fluid solutions sampled on both sides of the structure, allowing accurate force reconstruction for zero-thickness shells. To our knowledge, this is the first immersed boundary formulation that couples an unstructured finite element fluid solver with a two-dimensional, rotation-free shell model to simulate interactions between thin structures and incompressible flow. Fluid-structure coupling is achieved using predefined finite element shape functions, which provide consistent projection between Eulerian and Lagrangian fields without additional interpolation procedures. The framework is validated using three-dimensional benchmark problems involving thin structures. Then, valve-like model is used to compare strong and weak coupling strategies. Finally, the method is applied to an idealized type-B aortic dissection model. The proposed approach is implemented within the open-source software CRIMSON, a finite element platform for cardiovascular simulation.

Metabolic networks are typically viewed as homeostatic systems that stabilize flux, energy charge, redox balance, and metabolite availability under perturbation. However, it remains unclear whether the same feedback architectures that support metabolic robustness can also generate learning-like, experience-dependent adaptation. Here, we develop a coarse-grained dynamical model of mammalian energy metabolism to test whether prior perturbation can improve future metabolic responses. The model represents core glucose, glutamine, fatty acid, and oxidative phosphorylation pathways as coupled ordinary differential equations with Michaelis-Menten-type fluxes, product-inhibition feedback, adaptive enzyme-capacity regulation, and explicit ATP costs for enzyme adjustment. Rather than aiming to reproduce quantitative fluxes for a specific cell type, the framework is designed to expose how metabolic feedback, regulatory cost, repeated perturbation, and environmental variability interact. We use this model to ask whether adaptive enzyme regulation enables improved recovery after repeated challenges, whether such effects depend on energetic control costs, and whether environmental variability broadens or constrains the set of reachable adaptive states. This approach provides a tractable way to investigate how homeostatic metabolic regulation may give rise to experience-dependent metabolic plasticity.

Cooperative and competitive interactions among individuals harvesting resources can shape environmental states, such as prey abundance. In turn, environmental conditions feed back to influence strategic interactions. Eco-evolutionary game theory studies how these feedbacks shape the co-evolution of behavior and environment. Existing models typically assume deterministic, noise-free environmental dynamics. However, real environments are inherently stochastic, for example due to finite resources, and noise can qualitatively alter social outcomes. Here, we incorporate stochastic environmental dynamics into eco-evolutionary game theory. When environmental change is slow relative to strategy updates, we show that behavior reflects a mixture of the games associated with low and high environmental states, often yielding outcomes qualitatively distinct from deterministic predictions. In particular, environmental stochasticity can eliminate bistability and enforce dominance of a single behavior. When environmental dynamics are faster, populations have less opportunity to track fluctuations, and behavior converges toward strategies that are optimal on average. Stochasticity can even causes persistent oscillations in the tragedy of commons, in regimes where classical models predict stability. Our framework provides a tractable approach for analyzing social behavior linked to environmental dynamics how noise shapes long-term eco-evolutionary outcomes.

Cells communicate via extracellular ligands, such as hormones, which bind to plasma membrane receptors and trigger intracellular signaling cascades. G Protein-Coupled Receptors (GPCRs) exemplify this mechanism by initiating signaling both at the cell surface and, from intracellular compartments such as endosomes. The kinetics and spatial localization of these signals are critical determinants of cellular responses, yet receptor trafficking-including internalization, endosomal sorting, and recycling-remains a pivotal but often overlooked component of theoretical GPCR models. In this study, we present a mathematical framework that integrates receptor trafficking and signaling compartmentalization into generic GPCR dynamic models. Using a compartmentalized approach based on systems of ordinary differential equations (Chemical Reaction Networks), we analyze how receptor internalization and recycling modulate ligand-induced responses. Our results show that the balance between plasma membrane and endosomal signaling can significantly enhance or diminish ligand efficacy. Calibrated with high-throughput kinetic data, our model offers a refined tool for ligand pharmacological characterization and advances the understanding of GPCR signaling spatial organization.

Canine rabies persists in NDjamena (Chad) despite vaccination campaigns exceeding 70% coverage, suggesting a role for dog mobility and spatial heterogeneity. We propose a metapopulation SEIR model incorporating distance-modulated dog movements and an explicit vaccinated class. Analysis of the isolated patch establishes global stability of the disease-free equilibrium via a Lyapunov function. For the metapopulation, a composite Lyapunov function shows that elimination is governed by a reproduction number [R]v. Calibrated with field data (2012-2022), simulations reveal that uniform vaccination of both patches reduces [R]v by 46% (from 2.84 to 1.52) but does not achieve elimination, while targeted strategies are less effective. These results demonstrate that exhaustive vaccination coverage across the entire urban network and increased vaccination intensity are necessary to eliminate canine rabies in NDjamena. Our model provides a quantitative framework for planning effective control strategies.

A major challenge in neuroscience is to predict how currents in nanodomains affect voltage and ionic concentrations. Cable and Rall theory provide analytic current-voltage relations by neglecting concentration gradients, and the impact of concentration gradients is usually studied numerically with the Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) model. A precise quantitative understanding of the combined dynamics remains limited because analytic current-voltage-concentration relations are missing. In this work we derive such relations using a novel approach based on cross-diffusion equations. For narrow cylindrical domains, we derive time-dependent and steady-state expressions that explicitly show how currents affect voltage and ionic concentrations. We find that the influx of only one ion can significantly change the concentrations of all the other ions even if no channels for these ions are present. After a current injection we compute a biphasic voltage transient where the small-time asymptotic corresponds to the steady-state solution of the cable equation. We show that the accuracy of cable theory prediction for the voltage depends on how the current is distributed among the various ions. Finally, we develop an iterative method to accurately compute steady-state profiles for voltage and concentrations using first-order results by subdividing a cylinder into small segments.

Phylodynamics bridges the gap between epidemiology and pathogen genetic data by estimating epidemiological parameters from time-scaled pathogen phylogenies. Multi-type birth-death (MTBD) models are phylodynamic analogies of compartmental models in classical epidemiology. They serve to infer the average number of secondary infections R and the infection duration d. Moreover, more complex MTBD models add extra parameters, such as the average length of the incubation period or the proportion of superspreaders in the infected population. However, these additional parameters come at an important computational cost: Apart from the simplest, BD, model, MTBD models do not have a closed-form solution and require numerical methods for their likelihood computation. This leads to increased computational times and potential numerical errors. Therefore, the BD model remains the favorite researchers choice for real dataset analyses, and is often applied even in cases where more complex epidemiological aspects are present. We investigated, using simulations, how model misspecification influences inference of R and d in the phylodynamic framework. We showed that the use of models not accounting for various epidemiological aspects leads to bias. In particular the simplest, BD, estimator tends to underestimate R in the presence of super-spreading or incubation, which might be dangerous from the public health prospective. However, deep-learning-based estimators for complex models, which account for multiple epidemiological factors, perform well both on the data where those factors are present and where they are absent. This advocates for the use of complex epidemiologically realistic estimators, whose design has recently become possible thanks to deep learning.

Mark-recapture analyses on the delineation of natural populations between areas often assume random sampling, with a between/within (B/W) area resighting ratio that declines towards zero as the population components of two areas become more-and-more isolated from one another, with fewer-and-fewer individuals mixing between areas. I use an individual based population model split in two areas to simulate this result, analysing also for the potential effects of the space-time fidelity of the mark-recapture sampling in the areas. I find that small B/W resighting ratios--that traditionally is taken as evidence of population isolation--can easily be observed within a completely mixing population if a random sampling scheme is restricted in space and/or time. Random sampling within restricted areas and time windows is not sufficient to estimate mixing rates and population isolation between areas, unless the resighting rates are analysed by a method that accounts both for the space-time fidelity of the scientific sampling scheme and the space-time fidelity of the distributional behaviour of the individuals in the population.

In previous studies by the author on binocular vision with the asymmetric eye (AE), which models a healthy human eye with misaligned optical components, the results were primarily presented in the Rodrigues vector (RV) framework and supported by simulations and 3D visualizations in GeoGebras dynamic geometry environment. In this paper, the novel geometric kinematics of the human eye, that is, the eye with misaligned optics, and simplified assumptions about the eye rotations (the eyes translational movements are disregarded), are developed within the framework of rigid-body rotations. The originality of the analysis lies in a precise geometric decomposition of a full rotation of the eyes posture into a torsion-free rotation (the geodesic part) and a torsional rotation (the non-geodesic extension of the geodesic part). This decomposition is extended to the corresponding decomposition of the angular velocity. A novel derivation of the eyes angular velocity from the RV formulation of the eye kinematics is proposed.

1Cranial sutures are important structures associated with skull growth, and it is widely known that the cranial sutures have a fractal nature. However, the measurement conditions and analytical procedures have varied among studies, making direct comparison and interpretation difficult. In addition, the mechanisms by which such fractal-like patterns arise remain incompletely understood. In this study, we established and validated a standardized box-counting protocol for quantifying the fractal dimension (FD) of cranial sutures. Using this protocol, we quantified FD in 45 digitized images of human lambda sutures and in eight structure-formation model variants designed to generate fractal-like patterns via distinct kernel designs (step, Gaussian, Mexican-hat, and time-dependent/dual-stage), spatially inhomogeneous inhibition (Fbase), low-frequency noise, and different initial conditions (including sine-curve initialization). We show that FD estimates are strongly affected by preprocessing (including skeletonization) and the selected scale range, explaining discrepancies across previous studies. Crucially, under the matched preprocessing and scale-range criteria, three of the eight model variants reproduce the FD of real sutures within predefined equivalence margins, supporting the notion that appropriate dynamics can produce the observed fractal-like suture behavior and providing testable hypotheses for how such patterns may emerge.

Parameter estimation in nonlinear biological dynamical systems is a difficult inverse problem because the governing equations are often stiff or oscillatory, the data are sparse and noisy, and the objective landscape is non-convex. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer an alternative to purely simulation-based calibration by representing state trajectories with neural networks while penalizing violations of the governing equations. This paper studies the empirical reliability of PINNs for recovering the parameters of the repressilator, a synthetic genetic oscillator formed by three cyclically repressive genes. We use synthetic time-series generated from the standard ordinary differential equation model and train inverse PINNs to estimate the production parameter {beta} and the Hill coefficient n. The study varies observation noise, partial observation of repressors, sampling density, sensitivity to initial parameter guesses, and the difference between stable and oscillatory regimes. The results show that PINNs can reconstruct trajectories accurately when the model structure is correct and the three repressors are observed, but parameter recovery is more fragile than trajectory fitting. Noise, sparse sampling, unobserved variables, and unfavorable initial guesses increase the risk of biased estimates. The stable regime is easier to reconstruct, whereas the oscillatory regime provides richer information but also exposes optimization sensitivity. These findings support PINNs as a useful reverse-engineering tool for small gene-regulatory ODE models, while highlighting the need for repeated runs, uncertainty reporting, and experimental designs that improve identifiability.

A sudden reduction in population size increases the rate of genetic drift, reducing variability and increasing the mean level of homozygosity. The resulting increased exposure of recessive or partially recessive, strongly deleterious alleles to selection against homozygotes may lead to their being purged from the population, potentially allowing mean fitness to increase after an initial decline, and accelerating the decline in inbreeding depression associated with reduced variability. However, detailed population genetic theory on the effects of population bottlenecks on mean fitness and inbreeding depression remains limited. We develop a theoretical framework for small, randomly mating populations founded from a large population near mutation-selection-drift equilibrium, using both simulations and approximate analytical predictions. These provide quantitative predictions for the dynamics of the populations mean fitness and level of inbreeding depression following a bottleneck. In particular, we derive an approximate expression for the time needed for mean fitness to recover after an initial decline; such a recovery requires selection to be sufficiently strong relative to drift and mutations to be sufficiently recessive. In contrast, weakly deleterious mutations cause reductions in mean fitness and inbreeding depression that are similar in size to those predicted from increases in neutral homozygosity.